Non-economics!

Simon Wren-Lewis, one of my favorite academic economists, has a very interesting post on his blog on economic reporting without economics. I have been on this subject for a while now, but more explicitly in the recent past (see here and here).

At the very best, a new branch of economics has been "created" although it doesn't go through the formal route of rigour and logic, which Prof. Wren-Lewis cleverly calls media macro!

And still the posturing continues!

Does Nation Media Group have an Economics Editor? A Redux

I recently asked: Does Nation Media Group have an Economics Editor? This was not a pedestrian question. My motivation was that the media house makes unforced errors in matters basic economics.

In today's Business Daily, the lead story talks about inflation tax. The author talks about how proposed tax measures on financial services and consumer goods will lead to inflation. It is an accurate report, only that it does not amount to inflation tax, which is a technical word that means something else.

Am I splitting hairs? No. Instead I am illustrating how the pursuit of sounding informed by the media house often results in embarrassing inaccuracies.

If the report was about government measures that have an implication of raising medium term inflation, which then erodes the value of money - or bonds - it would be accurate.

Moral of the story: modesty - of words - is a virtue.  

What Hapenned to the Policy Reset Promise?

When I got an invitation from the IMF to attend a 9th May 2016 lecture by Its First Deputy Managing Director, Mr. David Lipton, at Strathmore University, I was excited. Part of the excitement was underpinned by the promised thrust of the lecture - Sub-Saharan Africa: Time for Policy Reset.

Is that what we got? Well, Mr. Lipton instead talked about "The Challenges of Sustaining Africa’s Growth Momentum". At the end of it all, the case for policy reset was not litigated; not even when the lecture ably navigated the terrain of remaining optimistic about the continent while being rife to the downside risks.

What struck me though was the celebratory tone that Mr. Lipton made reference to African economies' foray into the international capital markets. For what it is worth, I am all for a careful venture into the Euro bond market as well all other  capital markets but with one condition: the economies shouldn't do it as a matter of fashion; rather they should undertake a careful examination of the implications of such venture.

I honestly expected Mr. Lipton to provide some context on this subject, even from the wider perspective of debt sustainability, but he didn't; at least not explicitly.  What am I saying here?

• One, the  May 2013 issue of the IMFs Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa has a brilliantly crafted chapter on Issuing International Sovereign Bonds: Opportunities and Challenges for Sub-Saharan Africa. In this publication is a list of Sub-Saharan economies that had issued Sovereign bonds in the international markets.
• Two, many of these economies are beneficiaries of the debt relief initiatives such as the HIPC and its enhanced version.  
• Three, these economies' venture into the international capital markets was premised on the argument that they were debt sustainable, at least based on the IMF-World Bank criteria.
• Four, it can be argued that without relief, these economies could have not have been deemed debt-sustainable; in other words their debt sustainability was a function of somebody else's benevolence and not their debt management ingenuity.
• Five, given the downside risks that Mr. Lipton ably pointed out, and consequently the gloomy outlook of Sub-Saharan Africa as illustrated by the IMF's latest Regional Economic Outlook, some of these economies are heading back to debt unsustainability.

One question then comes to mind: if these economies get back into debt unstainable positions - and there evidence that some could - is a new form of debt relief the policy reset that the lecture didn't allude to?

I don't know. All I know though is that Mr. Lipton brilliantly  set the base for an interesting engagement; however  the discussants who were meant to motivate the engagement were at best underwhelming!