Thursday 2 October 2014

Feigning Intellectualism

Last week my colleague and I presented a paper in a research conference. The paper was a Conceptual Framework on Housing Price Index for the Kenyan market. The framework undertakes a comprehensive evaluation of literature that highlights the various methodologies for computing a credible index for the property market. Our proposal is to base the index on the so-called hedonic function - which makes adjustments for qualitative aspects of houses.
I have no doubt that the proposed index will cause excitement to three types of stakeholder.
One, there are those who are really looking for a reliable tool for managing their assets - be they investment portfolio or security held for lending.
Two, there are those who pretend that such tool exists  while anybody who is slightly more than curious will tell you it doesn't.
Three, there are those - whom economist Paul Krugman would call Accidental Theorists - who will feign intellectualism and lazily (or sensationally) argue that banks are now fighting for control of the property market.
It is the latter two, whose views are represented in a recent lead story in the Smart Company pullout of the Daily Nation , that I find interesting.
There are several angles to the story that tells of the cheapness of sensational journalism, but I use one purely for illustration.
Assuming the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics publishes the consumer price index (CPI) and tells you that the price of the goods in the CPI basket has gone up by 20 percent, and therefore for your given income you may need to take a loan from  a bank at 15 percent interest rate to be able to afford the goods for your household, would you argue that the high interest rates have caused the CPI to increase?
Stretch the same argument to housing. Assume that an index for housing prices indicates that the house process have gone up by 20 percent; for you to acquire the house with your current income you need to get a mortgage from a bank at 15 percent interest rate, would you argue that it is the interest rate that has influenced the housing price index?
That is the argument that a tomato seller cannot make because it doesn't make sense; but that is the argument a self-declared leader in the mortgage market analysis tells a reporter, who readily peddles it as high street merchandise.

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