Monday 2 March 2015

Pseudo Analysis Part 1: Uchumi and How the Dog Ate My Homework!

I expect the Business Daily to be a bit more curious than to take what it is told. Am I expecting too much? Well, may be yes.
Take the case of a recent story in its pages regarding Uchumi, the struggling supermarket chain. In that story, all of Uchumi's problems are occaioned by expensive bank borrowing. That will be okay of it were true.
I suspect that even the Business Daily knows that that is not true; but I guess the argument will be that the "ingenuous" boss said so - after-all with a honorary doctorate in "turn-around strategy", he must be knowing stuff!
Some sense of history may help here. When Uchumi was literally run down by some individuals - some of whom the gullible media celebrates as serious entrepreneurs - the government and banks were forced to take painful decisions to ensure that the company does not go under.
A few years later, its CEO tells the media that Uchumi's main problem is that its rights issue was delayed 15 months. Over that time, it had to go for expensive working capital from banks.
One could expect the Business Daily to ask a simple question: why was the rights issue delayed? But again I expect too much! Why ask while the boss has already said that - like the kid whose account for not completing home assignment was the "the dog ate my home work - it is the banks.
The delay in the rights issue most likely had to do with financial status being in a bad state. But still Business Daily and the like wants banks to lend to this company at competitive terms.
The last I checked, Uchumi was still listed in the Nairobi Securities Exchange, meaning that it is legally obliged to publish its financial statements and have its Annual Report at the mart. One needs to have even a casual look at the financial statements to see that cost of finance is not the core problem and therefore could not have been the cause of its woes. I expect that one curious analyst to be the Business Daily! But, again I expect too much because in so doing the sexy caption - 'Uchumi loss reveals the price of  expensive bank loans' - could be ruined by any analysis.
Meanwhile, nobody is questioning Uchumi's strategy! Great stuff, isn't it?

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