Eventually? Not really; it's more of: "that fast"! When I recently argued that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has always been preaching hope and masquerading that it is forecasting, somebody at the Fund accused me of having a bad attitude.
The Fund projected a real growth rate of 6.5 - 7.0 percent for Kenya for 2015. The National Treasury swallowed that projection line, hook and sinker, and run to town with the same growth rate as a basis for budgeting both revenue and expenditure.
The National Treasury has now revised the growth projection downwards to 5.8 - 6.0 percent. It is normal for forecasts to be reviewed from time to time. That is because they are based on assumptions which are considered plausible at the point of projection but which may not remain so for the entire forecast period.
What is funny though are the excuses that the National Treasury is giving. One is high interest rates. The other is the effect of El Nino. Recall that the interest rates have come down as fast as they went up within a short two months; and the National Treasury is on record telling all that wanted to listen that the borrowing binge that led to the spike was over and the rates will fall fast. Recall too that the Government has spent a hefty amount of money to obviate adverse effects of El Nino.
While there excuses are clearly laughable, I didn't and actually shouldn't expected an admission that official corruption is weighing down growth, there is a sigh of relief that there is some climb down. I will add though that the rate still looks ambitious.
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